Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
